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 Forecast Discussion

    
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ACUS03 KWNS 180732
SWODY3
SPC AC 180731

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday across portions of
the central and southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley, and over
portions of the mid-Atlantic region.

...Synopsis...
The persistent upper low over the Great Basin will
elongate/redevelop into the central Plains on Wednesday while
upper-level high pressure remains established over much of the
southern CONUS.  An upper trough over the northeast U.S. will move
east.  A frontal boundary will extend from the mid-Atlantic region
west to a developing low pressure center near the NE/KS border
Wednesday afternoon, and then extend southwest as a cold front into
the TX Panhandle.

...Central/southern Plains and lower MO Valley...
A mature MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday across central
KS/northwest OK, and the longevity of these storms later in the day 
casts uncertainty on the evolution of afternoon severe potential. 
As diurnal destabilization occurs downstream, it is probable that
thunderstorm intensity will increase along the remnant outflow
boundary or cold front from southeast NE south into central OK, and
northwesterly deep shear will support organized storms capable of
damaging winds, with hail possible with the strongest updrafts.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong heating will occur again Wednesday, and thunderstorms should
develop near a lee surface trough and an east-west front.  A
mid-level impulse moving through the base of the upper trough will
provide large-scale lift, contributing to scattered thunderstorm
development within a very moist/unstable air mass.  Very steep
low-level lapse rates and water loading within updrafts will result
in a risk for damaging winds as storms move east towards the coast.

..Bunting.. 06/18/2018

$$