Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 240517

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1117 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

/06z TAFs/

A cold front has moved through all TAF sites over the past few
hours, and all airports are now experiencing northwest winds at
10-15 kts. These winds will prevail into Sunday with VFR
conditions and only a few lingering high clouds. As surface high
pressure shifts eastward later Sunday afternoon, winds will
become more northeasterly at 5-10 kts. They`ll eventually return
to the east by Sunday evening while remaining light.



.UPDATE... /Issued 909 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019/
This evening`s cold front continues to make southeastward
progress through the forecast area, and is draped roughly from
Lampasas to Athens as of 9pm. This boundary has shifted winds to
the northwest, allowing cold advection to increase. A much cooler
night is in store as a result with low temperatures mostly in the
30s, or about 10 degrees cooler than last night. The decoupling
boundary layer has allowed winds to subside fairly quickly over
the past hour, and the Wind Advisory was allowed to expire at
9pm. Some occasional gusts of 20-25 mph will remain possible
through midnight, but speeds will continue to decrease overnight
with all areas seeing north winds around 10 mph by Sunday morning.
Tweaks with this update mostly just addressed trends with winds
and temperatures associated with the passing cold front. The
remainder of the forecast remains on track, and updated products
have already been transmitted.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 331 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019/

The strong shortwave responsible for this morning`s storms and
strong afternoon winds will be departing the region overnight. As
it does so, wind speeds will begin to decrease as the near-surface
atmosphere becomes decoupled from the stronger winds aloft.
Northwesterly winds will prevail through the night as a secondary
front makes its way through the region around sunset.

Mostly clear skies, a building surface high pressure, and calmer
winds will yield temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than last
night. Temperatures will range between the lower 30s in the
northwest to the lower 40s across the Brazos Valley.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 331 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019/
/Sunday through Saturday/

High pressure will settle in across North Texas on Sunday with
winds diminishing to around 5 mph under mostly sunny skies.
Despite it being cooler with highs in the upper 50s to near 60, it
should be a nice day with the sunny skies.

The weather through the upcoming week will be relatively quiet
with only a few low chances for rainfall and the potential for
colder air by the end of the week. We`ll remain in a relatively
weak zonal pattern through mid week with the more active polar
branch of the jet remaining in Canada. The surface high that
settles in tomorrow will spread to the east on Monday and we
should see a return to southerly flow and gradually warming
temperatures. Moisture return will be slow given the lack of any
significant deepening surface low across the Plains, but by late
Monday night a weak disturbance embedded in the westerly flow will
approach the region. This should be enough to allow southerly flow
off the surface to increase and low clouds to overspread the
region. As this disturbance swings through on Tuesday, low rain
chances will be possible mainly across our southeast counties
where the better moisture will be located.

We`ll hang on to some low rain chances Wednesday and Thursday
areawide as another shortwave swings through the northern Plains
and sends a cold front into the region likely on Wednesday night.
It`s a little unclear with respect to how strong this initial
front will be given the lack of more amplified flow aloft, but
there appears to be sufficient consensus among the guidance that
some type of cold front will be in the region. Moisture and
instability also remain in question, so we`ll just mention showers
for now, but the potential for some thunder may exist as we get

Otherwise, the blocking pattern over the western U.S. will break
down late week with a strong trough swinging through the Plains on
Friday. This should send a strong cold front southward just in
time for next weekend.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    37  59  37  63  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                38  60  37  63  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               36  57  35  61  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              33  58  35  62  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            34  58  35  62  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              38  60  37  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             36  59  36  63  45 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           38  60  37  63  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              37  60  38  63  47 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       34  60  34  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion