Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 152322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
522 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

/00Z TAF/

Concerns -- None major. Continued VFR. Weak FROPA Sunday evening.

VFR continues this evening. At the surface...winds remain from NW
but will decrease and become SWly then SSWly as the night
progresses. Aloft...high cirrus will be on the increase late
tonight as Pacific moisture approaches...but any cloud cover
should remain at or above FL200 and pose no operational impacts.

On Sunday...winds should be out of the S but remain light as high
pressure moves to the east...and weak low pressure develops over
the Southern Plains. A weak cold front will pass through the D10
TRACON area around 17/00Z resulting in a return of NWly winds.
FROPA timing may need to be refined in later TAF issuances...but
for now will show FROPA at 00Z (thus it is only explicitly
mentioned in the 30-hour DFW TAF).



.DISCUSSION... /Issued 244 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018/

Generally mild and tranquil weather is expected through the next
several days with some rain chances returning to the forecast
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

It`s been a pleasant Saturday in wake of our late-week storm
system with clear skies and lighter winds prevailing. With dry air
in place, temperatures have warmed quickly thanks to plentiful
sunshine. Later tonight, a surface ridge axis will drift eastward
into North Texas which will cause winds to become very light. This
will contribute to another large diurnal temperature swing due to
favorable radiational cooling from clear skies, light winds, and
low dewpoints. A warming trend should continue on Sunday with the
return of south winds and warm advection. There will be an
increase in high cloud cover throughout the day, as cirrus spreads
into the area within an intensifying upper jet streak.

Mid-level Pacific moisture will be on the increase late Sunday and
Monday ahead of a southern stream disturbance. This will likely
contribute to some virga and associated mid-level radar echoes,
but the potential for precipitation will be quite limited due to
very dry air through the low levels. This disturbance will also
drag a weak cold front into the area on Sunday night, but it will
largely go unnoticed from a sensible weather standpoint other than
to briefly turn winds to the north across North Texas.

Winds will quickly return to the south on Tuesday ahead of a
stronger secondary disturbance. Low-level southerly flow will be
more favorable for drawing a slug of Gulf moisture into the area
late Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, rain chances will be
higher with this system as opposed to its predecessor. Latest
models indicate a bit more instability than previous runs have
shown, owing to greater low-level moisture but still fairly meager
lapse rates. With guidance advertising a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE in place across Central Texas, a mention of isolated
thunderstorms is warranted Tuesday evening and Wednesday. Severe
storms are not expected with this system. Instead, it will be a
fairly brief shot of rain with perhaps some embedded lightning
late Tuesday into Wednesday morning before activity quickly
departs to the east.

A trailing cold front will be pulled through the area on Thursday,
causing temperatures to be a few degrees cooler, but still near
or a bit above normal. It should be a bit breezier as well with
some 15-25 mph winds possible in its wake. Otherwise, generally
pleasant and mild conditions are expected through the end of the
week and into next weekend. The GFS is depicting more amplified
flow than most of its counterparts, most of which suggest zonal
flow prevailing in the day 7-10 time period. The potential for
arctic air to intrude into North Texas appears low either way, so
largely near or above normal temperatures should continue through
this time period.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    37  65  41  60  42 /   0   0   0   5   0
Waco                33  67  42  64  42 /   0   0   0   5   0
Paris               37  62  40  59  40 /   0   0   0   5   0
Denton              33  65  38  60  41 /   0   0   0   5   0
McKinney            33  64  38  59  41 /   0   0   0   5   0
Dallas              38  65  43  61  42 /   0   0   0   5   0
Terrell             34  65  41  61  41 /   0   0   0   5   0
Corsicana           38  66  42  61  42 /   0   0   0   5   0
Temple              32  66  43  64  42 /   0   0   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       33  65  38  60  39 /   0   0   0   5   0





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion