Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

000
FXUS64 KFWD 241200
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
700 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

A quick return of warm/moist air advection ignited a second round
of thunderstorms east of ABI a few hours ago. Storms are racing
southeast and will affect the KACT area for the next few hours
before exiting to the south later this morning. To the north,
light winds and clearing skies behind last night`s convection have
allowed a combination of low cigs and fog to develop. It appears
that the DFW area is primarily being affected by low cigs due to
surface wind speeds remaining in the 5 to 10 kt range, and will
indicate at least a TEMPO group for IFR in the forecast through
15-16Z.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible later today across West-
Central Texas as a fast-moving disturbance moves in from the west.
Some of these may approach the western part of DFW TRACON, but
almost all guidance dissipates the activity prior to it reaching
any of the local TAF sites. Will need to keep an eye on future
trends and new guidance, however, and be quick to update if later
trends suggest that convection will last longer than currently
thought. Otherwise, a brief round of MVFR is likely around
daybreak Tuesday.

30

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/
An impressive line of thunderstorms extends from near Memphis,
southward along the Mississippi River to Natchez, then westward
across Louisiana and into Central and East Texas. The threat for
any additional severe weather across the CWA continues to
decrease with the loss of instability, and the current plan is to
expire the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, with no plans for additional
watches at this time. The primary concern has become flash
flooding due to training thunderstorms, but this threat should
shift south of all zones around sunrise.

Some of the latest guidance continues to indicate additional
development this afternoon across West-Central Texas as a speed
max passes over the area, and have kept chance to slight chance
POPs west of I-35 due to the possibility of any of these storms
entering from the west. Instability will have recovered quite a
bit by then with CAPE on the order of 3500 j/kg, but the lack of
forcing and the possibility of the atmosphere recovering slower
than thought has precluded the addition of higher POPs. That said,
an isolated strong or severe storm across the west can not be
ruled out.

A mid level ridge is still progged to develop over West Texas on
Tuesday, then expand northeast across the Plains the rest of this
week. North and Central Texas will be under the eastern edge of
the ridge, which places parts of the region in an area vulnerable
to scattered, mainly afternoon and evening convection each day
this week. Forcing associated with these features will be on the
weak side and have opted to lean on the low side of guidance with
regard to POPs. Chances for showers and storms will also be
limited primarily to areas along and east of the Interstate 35
corridor where the better moisture will be. Otherwise,
temperatures should remain around normal for this time of year.

The ridge will be further compromised across its eastern flank
this weekend as an inverted trough moves in from the Mississippi
Valley. Moisture and lift associated with this feature should be
enough for isolated, diurnally driven convection both Saturday and
Sunday. The trough will slow and become nearly stationary across
Texas and Mexico, which should allow rain chances to continue into
the early part of next week. With weak flow aloft and modified
tropical air associated with the system, any convection late in
the forecast period would likely be sub-severe.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  74  88  72  91 /  10  10  30  10  20
Waco                88  73  89  72  91 /  40  20  40  30  20
Paris               83  71  84  70  86 /   5  10  40  10  20
Denton              85  72  88  72  91 /  10  10  20  10  20
McKinney            85  72  87  72  90 /   5  10  30  10  20
Dallas              86  75  89  73  91 /  10  10  30  10  20
Terrell             85  72  88  72  91 /  10  10  40  20  20
Corsicana           86  73  86  70  88 /  20  10  50  30  20
Temple              88  74  89  72  90 /  40  30  40  30  20
Mineral Wells       85  71  88  70  90 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/26

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion