Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

000
FXUS64 KFWD 212026
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
326 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018


.SHORT TERM...

/Tonight/

Thunderstorms will remain possible this evening across the
Central Texas counties due to the presence of a weak front.
Activity has already developed along a line from Goldthwaite to
Hearne, and may increase in coverage over the next couple of
hours. Outflow mergers should once again allow isolated storms to
persist an hour or so after sunset. Good instability is present
along the front, so a few storms will be capable of producing
gusty winds and frequent lightning. The lack of shear and overall
weak flow at all levels will keep the severe threat fairly low.

Storms will dissipate late this evening giving way to a mostly
clear and dry overnight period. Smoke carried into the region from
wildfires in the Northwest States will keep the hazy conditions
going through the night, following what may be another
picturesque sunset. Pleasant conditions can be expected north of
the front with lows falling into the upper 60s from I-30 to the
Red River. Lower and middle 70s can be expected elsewhere.

30

&&

.LONG TERM...

/Wednesday and beyond/

Quiet, rain-free, and hot weather is expected through next week
as an upper level high parks itself over Texas and the Southern
Plains. Hazy conditions will continue on Wednesday as smoke from
ongoing wildfires by the Canadian Rockies lingers across North
and Central Texas. Conditions should be similar to today as the
vertically integrated smoke amounts from the experimental HRRR
remain nearly the same. Visibility will still remain above 5
miles, but the combination of the smoke from wildfires and high
amounts of ozone will be unhealthy for sensitive groups.
Temperatures will be near normal across North Texas and slightly
above normal across Central Texas.

As the upper level high builds over North and Central Texas and
subsidence increases, the return of triple digit heat is expected
on Thursday in Central Texas and Friday across the region.
Southerly low-level winds are expected to organize into this
weekend and will allow for temperatures to "cool" slightly. Highs
will be in the mid to upper 90s through next Wednesday. Heat
index values will top out between 99 to 103 degrees as dewpoints
mix out each afternoon. There are some areas east of I-35 that may
reach heat advisory criteria early next week and we`ll continue
to monitor this potential.

Villanueva

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1254 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018/
A lingering surface front will provide focus for isolated
thunderstorms over Central Texas this afternoon. Activity should
remain mostly south of the Waco area, but we will need to keep an
eye on any northward moving outflow which could trigger a storm or
two near KACT this afternoon/evening. At this time, probabilities
are too low to include in the KACT TAF. Farther north, subsidence
from an upper ridge will preclude any convective development.
Winds will remain out of the north at 5 to 10 KT behind the front,
veering to the east this evening. A brief period of light
southeast winds will occur Wednesday morning, followed by a
return to an easterly direction by Wednesday afternoon.

Low and mid level winds across the western and central CONUS
continue to result in an influx of smoke across North Texas,
resulting in the hazy conditions across the area. Conditions are
expected to remain VFR, though reductions in visibility can be
expected just beyond 10SM.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  94  75  97  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                73 100  74 101  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               67  91  70  94  72 /   0   5   0   5   0
Denton              68  94  72  98  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            68  93  72  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              74  96  76  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             69  94  73  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           71  96  73  98  76 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  99  72 100  75 /  20   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       70  96  71  99  74 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

22/30

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion