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Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 2000Z Outlook
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS01 KWNS 151950
SPC AC 151949

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z


A few lightning strikes may occur across parts of the upper Ohio
Valley this afternoon. Otherwise, thunderstorms are not expected
across the remainder of the country.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue to decrease along the
outer banks of NC, as well as across southern FL as a cold front
drifts east. Therefore, have removed the 10% general thunderstorm
line from those areas.

A few lightning strikes may still occur this afternoon across parts
of eastern KY and vicinity related to cold temperatures beneath the
upper low. However, severe weather is unlikely as instability will
be weak.

..Jewell.. 12/15/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018/

...Eastern NC...
While a relatively favorable wind profile will be in place into
early afternoon near the outer banks of NC, widespread clouds and
light precipitation have limited destabilization across this region,
and the strongest storms are expected to remain offshore through the
rest of the period. 

...South FL...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across south FL
along a cold front. While deep-layer shear is relatively strong
across this region, very poor midlevel lapse rates should limit
updraft strength and preclude any organized severe thunderstorm

...OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
Weak convection and a few lightning strikes are possible along and
ahead of the track of the upper low and associated midlevel cold
pocket this afternoon into tonight, from eastern KY into the
DelMarVa region and southern NJ.