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Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1630Z Outlook
  
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

  
000
ACUS01 KWNS 241607
SWODY1
SPC AC 241605

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN...AND OVER WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds will
affect the central/southern Appalachians and Ohio Valley today. 
Other more isolated severe activity is possible today over northern
Illinois/southern Wisconsin and vicinity, and over
west-central/southwest Texas.

...Central/Southern Appalachians...
Morning satellite and radar imagery show a well-defined remnant MCV
over southern KY.  This trough is embedded with a larger upper
trough rotating across the OH/TN valleys.  The air mass ahead of the
feature is heating rapidly and will become very unstable by
mid-afternoon.  Strengthening midlevel winds, coupled with strong
instability and affects of the MCV will pose a more substantial risk
of bowing thunderstorm structures capable of damaging wind gusts.  A
few supercells cannot be ruled out, along with a risk of isolated
tornadoes.  Therefore have upgraded much of WV and vicinity to an
ENH risk and 30% severe wind probabilities.

...AL/GA...
A very warm/humid air mass remains in place today over this region
with strong CAPE values expected.  Most 12z CAM solutions suggest
pockets of afternoon thunderstorm development, although models
differ on placement and timing.  Those storms that form will pose a
risk of strong/damaging wind gusts.

...WI/IL...
Considerable cloud cover is slowly eroding today from the west over
southern WI/northern IL.  This may result in sufficient afternoon
heating for scattered thunderstorm development. Relatively cold
midlevel temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s will promote a few
robust updrafts capable of hail.  Vertical shear is not particularly
strong - and given the clouds and thermodynamic uncertainties,
overall coverage of severe storms may remain limited.

...TX...
Full sunshine and rapid destabilization is occurring over parts of
west TX today.  This is expected to result in rapid thunderstorm
development this afternoon.  Large CAPE values will be in place, but
vertical shear will be weak.  It appears that multicell storm
structures will be common, with gusty winds and hail possible in the
most intense cores.

..Hart/Karstens.. 06/24/2019

$$