Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Fri, Dec 14, 2018 - Sat, Dec 15, 2018 D7Mon, Dec 17, 2018 - Tue, Dec 18, 2018
D5Sat, Dec 15, 2018 - Sun, Dec 16, 2018 D8Tue, Dec 18, 2018 - Wed, Dec 19, 2018
D6Sun, Dec 16, 2018 - Mon, Dec 17, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

    
000
ACUS48 KWNS 110956
SWOD48
SPC AC 110955

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models suggest that a surface frontal wave migrating
inland off the northeastern Gulf of Mexico could be accompanied by
forcing for ascent and shear supportive of organized severe
thunderstorm potential on Friday.  This currently seems most likely
to impact portions of northern Florida, from the Big Bend into the
Gainesville/Jacksonville areas (and perhaps as far south as the
Interstate 4 corridor of the central Peninsula), into southern
Georgia.  Guidance indicates that Gulf boundary layer modification
may allow for an influx of mid 60s+ F surface dewpoints across this
region during the day, however this may still only result in very
weak destabilization.  Given, also, sizable spread still evident
among the models, and within their respective ensemble output,
concerning the evolution and progression of the deep lower/mid
tropospheric cyclone initially approaching the lower Mississippi
Valley at 12Z Friday, the extent of any severe weather potential
remains unclear.

Otherwise, generally stable conditions appear likely to prevail
across much of the U.S. this weekend through early next week,
resulting in negligible risk for severe thunderstorms.

..Kerr.. 12/11/2018