Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Fri, Mar 23, 2018 - Sat, Mar 24, 2018 D7Mon, Mar 26, 2018 - Tue, Mar 27, 2018
D5Sat, Mar 24, 2018 - Sun, Mar 25, 2018 D8Tue, Mar 27, 2018 - Wed, Mar 28, 2018
D6Sun, Mar 25, 2018 - Mon, Mar 26, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS48 KWNS 200747
SPC AC 200746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

Low pressure will deepen over the central Plains on Friday/D4 as a
shortwave trough travels across the Four Corners states. This low
will move toward the MO Valley Friday night with a warm front
extending from NE to MO. A plume of 50s to near 60 F dewpoints will
spread northward, with lift north of the warm front favoring
scattered storms Friday night. Instability will be weak, therefore
severe storms are not expected.

For Sunday/D6 through Tuesday/D8, some semblance of southwest flow
is likely to exist across central parts of the CONUS, but
predictability is too low given model spread to outlook any
potential severe threat.

..Jewell.. 03/20/2018