Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Sun, Jun 24, 2018 - Mon, Jun 25, 2018 D7Wed, Jun 27, 2018 - Thu, Jun 28, 2018
D5Mon, Jun 25, 2018 - Tue, Jun 26, 2018 D8Thu, Jun 28, 2018 - Fri, Jun 29, 2018
D6Tue, Jun 26, 2018 - Wed, Jun 27, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

    
000
ACUS48 KWNS 210826
SWOD48
SPC AC 210825

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Substantial low-level moisture will remain over the eastern half of
the CONUS through the period, with generally weak flow aloft. One
possible focus for severe weather will be a slow-moving shortwave
trough that is forecast to affect the central and northern High
Plains on Sun/D4, and progress eastward across the mid MO and upper
MS Valleys through Tue/D6. Moisture and instability will spread
northward across the Plains ahead of this feature, with only a weak
surface trough and nocturnal warm advection to focus development. As
such, MCSs will be the primary storm mode, with areas of damaging
wind as well as heavy rain. At this time, predictability is low. One
possible area for a future upgrade will be eastern CO into KS on
Sun/D4, as the shortwave trough emerges into the Plains. However,
models indicate the potential for ongoing rain/storms over the area
Sunday morning which decreases predictability.

..Jewell.. 06/21/2018