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Day 2 Outlook Categorical Probabilistic
Categorical Day2 0700Z Outlook
  

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

  
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ACUS02 KWNS 141646
SWODY2
SPC AC 141645

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact coastal North Carolina early
Saturday, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep yet filling upper low will move from northern AL and MS
toward the Appalachians providing lift and cooling aloft to much of
the Mid Atlantic. A stationary front will be situated over the
eastern Carolinas with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints near the coast,
with a cold front extending southward across southern FL. A broad
zone of 40 kt southwesterly winds at 850 mb will maintain modest
warm advection ahead of these boundaries, with marginally favorable
shear profiles for a brief supercell or two near the outer banks of
NC during the afternoon. Other storms are likely with heating over
southern FL, but lapse rates aloft, as well as lift, will not favor
much of a severe threat there.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Jewell.. 12/14/2018

$$