Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 021029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
529 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...New Short Term, Aviation...


No major changes were made to the forecast this morning. This week
will start unseasonably hot with highs in the low to mid 90s with
widespread rain and cooler temperatures expected later this week.
Additional details regarding the timing, rain amounts, and impacts
of the mid-week system are in the Long Term discussion below.


Previous Discussion:
/Monday and Tuesday/

A meridional pattern has established across the CONUS with our
area sandwiched between a deep trough to our west and stout ridge
to our east. The lack of any significant forcing mechanisms will
keep the forecast dry until Tuesday afternoon (more of this in the
next paragraph). Despite the lack of precipitation, we should see
a near steady stream of mid- and upper-level clouds traversing the
region. Morning lows should be in the upper 60s to low 70s with
afternoon highs in the low 90s. These values are about 10 degrees
above normal for this time of the year.

Our first mentionable PoPs return Tuesday afternoon in two areas,
one across the northwest and another across the southeast. The
southeastern area will be associated with an influx of moisture
laden air moving inland from the Gulf. We`re expecting scattered
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to move across Southeast
Texas Tuesday morning and encroach on our area in the afternoon.
These will be very hit or miss, but capable of giving quick bouts
of moderate to heavy rain. The northwestern area will be mostly
west of our forecast area closer to a dryline, but there is a low
(20%) chance of isolated thunderstorms moving into our area late
Tuesday afternoon.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 329 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023/
/Tuesday Night Through Next Weekend/

The main weather highlights of the long-term period continue to
be the potential for widespread rainfall and the arrival of a
strong cold front during the middle of this week.

At the start of the period, a few showers and storms associated
with a dryline may approach western North and Central Texas
Tuesday evening; otherwise, mostly quiet conditions are
anticipated until Wednesday morning when a gradual increase in
shower and thunderstorm activity is set to begin. Another inland
surge of Gulf moisture will transpire early Wednesday, with PWATs
nearing or exceeding 2" across a good portion of the region. As
this occurs, an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected, but there are still some discrepancies in both location
and timing amongst deterministic guidance members. For now, PoPs
were kept fairly broad-brushed throughout the day Wednesday.

Confidence continues to increase with our main opportunity for
showers and storms that`s expected to unfold Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Lift will be maximized during this time period
by both a potent upper-level trough and strong surface cold
front, resulting in the development of widespread showers and
thunderstorms near/along the frontal boundary. We will contend
with a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday
evening and overnight, as sufficient instability and shear will
support a threat for hail and damaging winds. The best potential
currently appears to exist across western North Texas. However,
the magnitude of this threat will come more into focus over the
next couple of days as we get within range of hi-res guidance.

Regarding rainfall totals, here are the highlights based on
latest ensemble guidance:

- All locations are nearly guaranteed at least 0.25" of rain by
  the end of the week (~85-100% chance for all of North and
  Central Texas).
- Rainfall totals will most likely range from approximately 0.75"
  to 4" across the region.
- Embedded pockets of heavy rainfall and/or cell training will
  result in locally higher rainfall totals. 10% of areas will see
  4.5-5" of rainfall.
- The highest rainfall totals are expected to be near/south of
  I-20 and west of I-45.

Despite the ongoing drought conditions, isolated instances of
flash flooding will be possible where the heaviest rainfall occurs
with this mid-week system. Stay weather-aware, especially if
traveling Wednesday evening through Thursday.

Most of the showers and thunderstorms should come to and end by
late Thursday. However, we`ll maintain at least some low PoPs
through Friday, as the trough will be slow to exit the region and
drier air may lag behind the front. Otherwise, our first true
glimpse of fall-like temperatures is expected behind the front
through the weekend with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s
and cool mornings in the 50s (mainly Saturday and Sunday).



/12Z TAFs/

Light and variable winds should continue until around 15Z. Wind
speeds AOB 05 kts during this time should preclude any significant
operational impacts, so this detail was not included in the D10
TAFs. SE winds 6-12 kts should prevail thereafter. A near steady
stream of SCT-BKN mid/upper clouds will move across the region
through the valid TAF period.

Enjoy the favorable flying weather the next couple days because
degraded flying conditions are expected area wide early Wednesday
morning through Friday.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  71  92  74  86 /   0   0   0  30  80
Waco                92  68  91  74  88 /   0   0  20  30  80
Paris               90  65  88  69  81 /   0   0   0  10  70
Denton              93  68  91  71  86 /   0   0   0  40  80
McKinney            92  66  90  71  84 /   0   0   0  30  80
Dallas              93  71  92  74  87 /   0   0   0  30  80
Terrell             92  66  91  71  84 /   0   0   0  20  80
Corsicana           93  68  92  73  88 /   0   0   5  20  80
Temple              94  68  92  73  88 /   0   0  30  30  80
Mineral Wells       95  67  92  70  88 /   0   0  10  40  80




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion