Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
874
FXUS64 KFWD 270530
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM tonight for most
of North Texas and eastern Central Texas for heat indices up to
around 106.
- Hot and rain-free weather will persist through the upcoming week
with little relief in sight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Continued southerly winds and subsident air from the lingering
upper- level southern CONUS ridge will keep today hot and humid.
Under mostly sunny skies, afternoon highs will be able to peak in
the upper 90s to around 103 across much of North Texas, with
Central Texas rising up into the mid 90s to around 100. The base
NBM dewpoints are a bit too high during the afternoon hours, as
actual observations show that we mix out a bit more, so have
lowered dewpoints a bit. Even with lowered dewpoints, modest
humidity will push afternoon heat indices into the upper 90s to
around 106 degrees, with much of North Texas and eastern Central
Texas having the higher heat indices. The current Heat Advisory
remains in effect through 8 PM this evening. Overnight, expect
temperatures to only bottom out in the mid 70s to low 80s, making
for a warm and humid start to Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Over the next several days, the upper-level ridge will remain
planted across much of the western and Central CONUS, with a
trough setting up across the eastern CONUS coast. In response,
expect continued hot and dry weather across the region. Afternoon
highs through this week will peak in the upper 90s to around
102-104. With no real pattern shift expected until the end of the
week into this upcoming weekend, have also lowered dewpoints each
afternoon through Thursday to account for the better afternoon
mixing. Daily peak heat indices will range from the upper 90s to
around 106-107, meaning Heat Advisories will likely continue for
portions of the region each day. Make sure to continue to take
precautions against the heat, and know the signs of heat illness.
Guidance continues to show the eastern CONUS trough digging
further to the southwest late this week into the weekend, which
will shunt the upper-level ridge back towards the Desert
Southwest. This will place North and Central Texas in between the
two upper-level features, with north-northwest flow aloft overtop.
Both the deterministic long-range guidance and the ensembles show
a disturbance pushing a "cold" front south through the region on
Saturday, which would aid in shaving a few degrees off of
afternoon highs. At this time, any precipitation looks to mainly
be to our south and east. With it being a bit of a ways out, there
is still uncertainty on the exact temperatures and location of
any precipitation, so make sure to stay up to date with the
forecast as we head through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Great flying weather is expected at all TAF sites over the next
24-30 hours as VFR and southerly winds around 7-12 kts prevail.
Any cloud cover should be limited to some occasional high-based
cirrus and perhaps diurnal cumulus in the afternoons.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 102 81 102 81 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 99 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 98 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 102 79 102 80 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 102 79 102 80 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 103 81 103 82 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 100 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 100 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 98 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 102 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-146>148-162.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
