Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
404
FXUS64 KFWD 130707
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
107 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of dense fog will affect portions of Central Texas through
the morning before visibilities improve by midday. A Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect.
- A strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight leading
to colder and windy conditions on Sunday. Light rain and drizzle
may accompany this front`s passage.
- Abnormally warm temperatures will return to the region next week
with minimal rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Yesterday`s weak stalled frontal boundary and the nearly calm
winds in its vicinity are serving as an impetus for dense fog
development across Central Texas. Higher surface dewpoints remain
pooled along and south of this boundary where a Dense Fog
Advisory is already in effect, but additional fog development
could occur through parts of East Texas yet this morning along a
northward protrusion of the moist axis. We`ll continue to monitor
trends for any necessary expansion of the current Advisory. Slow
partial clearing of fog and low stratus should occur through the
daytime before a strong cold front arrives this evening and
tonight. This frontal boundary and its attendant ascent should
support additional low cloud cover and perhaps pockets of light
rain and drizzle from late this afternoon into tonight. Post-
frontal northerly winds will also increase to 15-20 mph with some
gusts of 25-30 mph immediately following its passage. Strong cold
advection will send overnight lows into the upper 20s and 30s for
most locations, some 30+ degrees colder than this afternoon`s
highs.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Sunday morning will feature crisp wind chills in the teens and
20s following the overnight frontal passage, and cold advection
will offset diabatic heating with afternoon highs only reaching
the 40s. Wind speeds will gradually lessen throughout the daytime,
becoming calm on Sunday night. Despite a cold start to Monday
morning, an abrupt warming trend will commence through the first
half of the workweek as a warm advection regime becomes
reestablished, with highs returning to above normal as early as
Tuesday. Another fast-moving Central Plains system could sweep
through the area during the second half of the week, but the
degree of moisture recovery preceding it remains uncertain. For
now, rain chances with an additional late week frontal passage are
too slim to mention, with an abnormally warm and dry forecast
being the most likely solution.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
VFR currently prevails at D10 airports, but increasing low cloud
cover could result in low cigs later this morning. For Waco,
areas of fog are already resulting in significantly degraded
flying conditions, and this will likely remain the case through
most of the morning with IFR/LIFR prevailing. This afternoon,
most of the TAF sites should go MVFR due to developing low
stratus near and ahead of an approaching strong cold front. As
this boundary moves through this evening, it may be accompanied by
pockets of mist and drizzle which would likely also serve to
temporarily lower flight categories to IFR. Gradual lifting of
cigs should occur toward the end of the valid period with VFR
resuming early Sunday morning with breezy north winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 42 62 31 / 0 0 0 10
Waco 71 48 66 39 / 0 10 20 10
Paris 67 40 59 31 / 0 0 10 10
Denton 70 35 63 26 / 0 0 0 10
McKinney 70 39 62 29 / 0 0 0 10
Dallas 70 43 63 33 / 0 0 0 10
Terrell 70 44 64 33 / 0 0 10 10
Corsicana 68 50 67 40 / 0 10 20 10
Temple 70 50 69 39 / 0 10 20 10
Mineral Wells 73 37 67 29 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for TXZ147-148-
156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
