Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
000
FXUS64 KFWD 191024 AAA
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
524 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Nothing to add from discussions below. No changes were needed.
05/Marty
Previous Discussion:
Update
/Through Mid Week/
Earlier discussion below on track through tonight regarding some
frost across rural areas primarily North through Southeast of the
DFW Metroplex. The warm up ensues with the return of southerly
breezes by this afternoon into tonight.
Wednesday:
This morning`s broad surface ridge will continuing exiting to the
southeast toward Central Gulf Coast on Wednesday, while a vigorous
mid level shortwave moves out of the Desert Southwest and toward
the the Southern High Plains late Wednesday afternoon. Mid level
height falls in advance of this system will result in deepening
surface cyclogenesis across E NM and the OK/TX Panhandles by late
afternoon. A surface dryline will extend southward just east of
the TX/NM common border. Well east of these features across North-
Central TX, increasing southerly low level flow from the GoM will
help draw dew point temperatures in the lower-mid 50s up across
much of the forecast area by early Wednesday evening.
Strong, large-scale ascent will remain well west of the forecast
area and near the W TX dryline. This will help to fire a few discrete
supercells storms across the TX Panhandle and Caprock region
extending into far western OK by evening. The fast southwest flow
aloft further east will only help to increase the warm and
statically stable air over our area with a stout elevated mixed
layer (Cap) aloft. Outside of a sprinkle or two from the
increasing low level warm advection, look for breezy and
seasonally warm high temperatures during the afternoon hour under
partly to mostly cloudy skies.
05/Marty
Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday Night/
Post-frontal weather conditions will take us through the
overnight hours into Tuesday. Wind speeds have gradually decreased
through the afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight.
Lows tonight will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s, with a few
locations out east and along the Red River Valley reaching the
freezing mark. Patchy frost will be possible across portions of
North and Central Texas, so be sure to protect any plants that you
may have outside! Southerly flow will return to the region as we
move into the early morning hours tomorrow, with gusts out of the
southwest around 15-20 mph. Highs will reach into the mid to upper
60s, with a few locations out west hitting the 70 degree mark.
Temperatures through Tuesday night will fall to around seasonal
norms, ranging in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Reeves
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/
/Wednesday Night and Beyond/
As southerly low-level flow increases over the next couple of
days, surface dewpoints in the mid- to upper 50s will advect over
North and Central Texas by Wednesday ahead of the next weather-
making system. An upper-level low will dig south toward the Texas
Panhandle late Wednesday aiding in the development of showers and
thunderstorms along a dryline extending south out of developing
surface low pressure. This activity will approach our western
zones late Wednesday evening and shift east during the overnight
and into Thursday morning. Limited instability will keep the
thunder potential low as this initial round of precipitation moves
overhead. Additional showers and thunderstorms will likely develop
Thursday afternoon as large-scale ascent increases with the
approaching upper-level low, especially east of I-35 where
greater quality moisture is expected to reside. Steepening mid-
level lapse rates and diurnal heating may lead to pockets of
750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE Thursday afternoon, primarily south of the
I-20 corridor. Developing convection will have some modest capping
to work through Thursday afternoon, but a few strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of producing hail and gusty winds seem
possible late in the day Thursday, primarily across Central Texas.
Any lingering precipitation will shift east of the forecast area
by Thursday night as this storm system moves over the SE CONUS.
Rainfall totals will likely add up to a general 0.25-0.75" east of
I-35 with lesser amounts as you go toward the Big Country. Light
north, northeasterly winds behind this system will keep afternoon
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Friday and into the weekend
(near-normal for this time of year). The next shot of rain looks
to arrive late Sunday into early next week as medium-range
guidance continues to highlight deep troughing over the western
CONUS in the Day 6-Day 7 timeframe. Some early hints in the
extended guidance do show some potential for severe weather in the
Southern Plains during this timeframe, so continue to check-in
with the forecast over the next several days.
Langfeld
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/
No changes necessary from current TAF set. VFR prevail with
periodic dense cirrus streaming over the top of an upper ridge.
Light SE surface wind 5 kts or less will become S near 10 kts by
afternoon. These conditions should continue into tonight.
SSW winds 10 to 15 kts expected on Wednesday as pressures fall
across the D10 airspace.
05/Marty
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 50 72 57 68 / 0 0 5 50 70
Waco 66 46 68 57 72 / 0 0 10 40 60
Paris 66 44 69 52 61 / 0 0 10 50 70
Denton 69 46 71 53 67 / 0 0 5 50 70
McKinney 68 47 70 54 64 / 0 0 5 50 80
Dallas 69 51 70 57 68 / 0 0 5 50 70
Terrell 67 46 68 55 66 / 0 0 5 50 70
Corsicana 68 49 69 57 69 / 0 0 5 50 70
Temple 67 47 67 56 73 / 0 0 10 30 50
Mineral Wells 71 46 73 55 73 / 0 0 5 40 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion