Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
662
FXUS64 KFWD 201055
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
555 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions will return Friday through the
weekend, mainly west of the I-35 corridor.
- Seasonable temperatures will prevail today before a warm-up
begins Friday.
- Storm chances return on Sunday for areas along and east of I-35.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No major changes were made to the short term forecast. Only minor
adjustments were needed to account for trends this morning. A
tranquil and seasonably cool day is in store for the region. The
previous discussion remains valid through Friday morning.
Reeves
Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday Morning/
Quiet and cool weather conditions can be expected through the
morning, with lows across the region in the low to mid 30s and
light northerly winds around 5 to 10 mph. A few of our rural and
low-lying locations may briefly touch the freezing mark just
before sunrise. Seasonably cool weather conditions can be expected
once again today, with highs in the low to upper 60s and low 70s.
Sunny skies will prevail outside of some passing cirrus, leading
to a pleasant early spring afternoon. Winds will become southerly
overnight Thursday into Friday morning as a weak ridge pushes off
to our southeast. No precipitation is expected, with an elevated
fire weather threat lingering through the period.
Reeves
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 257 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/
Update:
An elevated to critical fire weather threat remains the primary
hazard on Friday as south-southwesterly winds become breezy/gusty
in response to the developing surface low to our NW. Surface wind
speeds are expected to remain below the criteria for a Wind
Advisory, however the warm, dry, and breezy conditions will still
be favorable for rapid wildfire ignition and spread. The area of
greatest concern will be near and west of the I-35 corridor. The
need for fire weather products (i.e. a Red Flag Warning) will be
assessed later today. A building ridge aloft/surface high pressure
should keep wind speeds fairly modest early next week allaying
concerns for a continued fire weather threat. Ensemble guidance
continues to signal a potential for additional rain chances
during the latter half of the next week.
12
Previous Discussion:
/Friday Onward/
Southerly winds will return Thursday night and will strengthen on
Friday as a surface low ejects from the Front Range. Low level
moisture will be slow to return, resulting in another day of very
low humidity. Breezy winds, dry air, and warmer temperatures will
allow an elevated to critical fire weather threat to reemerge
Friday afternoon, primarily for areas along/west of the I-35
corridor where fuels will continue to dry over the next couple of
days.
The surface low`s attendant cold front will enter portions of North
Texas late Friday afternoon/evening, but with its upper level
counterpart displaced well to our north, the front will stall
shortly after crossing the Red River. Overnight Friday, low-level
winds will tap into Gulf moisture and begin transporting it
northward. A warm front will migrate northward throughout the day
on Saturday, and southerly winds will strengthen as another
surface low deepens just east of the Rockies. As a potent mid-
level trough digs into the Plains Saturday night, the surface low
will eject eastward, sending a cold front towards the region.
Increasing isentropic ascent will result in the development of
scattered showers and perhaps a few storms as early as Saturday
evening in southern Oklahoma. Some of this activity may skirt our
northeastern zones overnight, but the bulk of our storm chances
are expected with the cold front on Sunday. The best potential for
showers and storms will be across eastern North and Central Texas
Sunday afternoon and evening, shifting into Central Texas Sunday
night. This will likely be accompanied by a potential for strong
to severe storms, as both instability and shear will be supportive
of organized convection. Continue to monitor the forecast
throughout the week as specific forecast details come into focus.
Next Monday will be slightly cooler behind the front, but
temperatures will quickly moderate as we head into the middle of
next week. Looking ahead, there is a decent signal that rain
chances could return mid to late next week, but ensemble guidance
is still fairly split between he return of a more active pattern
versus ridging/clear weather. Fortunately, our prolonged period of
windy conditions is expected to finally come to an end. Much
lower wind speeds are expected next week, which will help mitigate
the wildfire threat.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/
Concerns...None at this time.
VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
entire period. Northerly winds will continue through much of the
day before becoming southerly through the evening. A few passing
cirrus will move overhead. Southerly winds will continue through
the extended TAF period, with winds around 15 to 25 knots.
Reeves
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 45 77 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 67 40 77 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 61 38 70 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 5
Denton 65 40 77 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 63 40 75 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 66 45 77 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 63 38 73 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 66 41 77 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 69 39 78 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 68 40 80 47 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
