Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 161932

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
232 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/
/This Afternoon through Monday Night/

A warm and breezy afternoon is underway across North Texas with
temperatures steadily climbing into the lower 90s under partly
cloudy skies. A weak disturbance passing to our north resulted in
a few showers/storms off to the west through the late morning, but
these have since dissipated and no additional precipitation is
expected this afternoon. The remainder of the evening and
overnight will feature continued southerly winds with overnight
lows falling into the mid 70s.

While strong ridging will be setting up over the eastern CONUS
resulting in a pronounced heat wave, North Texas will be
positioned between an amplifying trough to the west and the
stronger ridge to the east. Persistent southerly flow will allow
deeper tropical moisture to spread inland a bit during the day
Monday as an inverted mid level trough makes its way westward
across the Gulf. This trough will begin to take on tropical
characteristics later this week, but until then, a plume of 2.5"+
PWs will approach the TX coast late Monday beneath a weakness in
the height fields across North Texas. This should lead to an
appreciable uptick in convection across southeast TX tomorrow
afternoon, some of which will spread into our eastern and
southeastern counties. We`ve nudged PoPs upward to 40-50% across
our southeast counties with lower PoPs as far west as the I-35
corridor. Most of this activity will be diurnally driven and peak
during the late afternoon with a quick reduction in coverage by
evening. Given the increasing moisture content, locally heavy
rainfall will be the main threat with this activity into the
middle part of the week.



/Tuesday Onward/

An unsettled weather pattern is expected over midweek as an
inverted trough and associated tropical disturbance move across
Mexico/South Texas. Stout southerly low-level flow on the back-
side of the eastern CONUS ridge will continue, sending abundant
moisture across the region. As the aforementioned tropical
disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico moves closer to the Texas/Mexico
coastline on Tuesday, the upper trough will expand northward into
Central Texas. This expansion will provide enough lift to promote
isolated showers and storms across East Texas over the afternoon
and evening hours. Rich tropical moisture in the form of near 2"
PWATs are expected in our eastern counties, and will support the
potential for heavy rain.

The tropical disturbance will move onshore midweek, bringing rain
chances further westward on Wednesday. Best chances for showers and
storms will be in southern Central Texas, gradually decreasing the
further north you go. Scattered showers and perhaps a few storms are
expected to move from east to west over the day Wednesday. Severe
weather is not expected during this time, however periods of
heavy rain and lightning will impact outdoor plans. Current most
likely 72 hour rainfall totals (Tues through Fri) are 1.5-3"
across Central Texas, and 1.5" or less north of I-20.

Persistent uncertainty remains in the exact location and track of
the tropical disturbance and associated surface low. The GFS has had
a more northern track into South Texas, while the NAM and ECMWF are
further south into Mexico. The location of the low will impact
rainfall totals, with a more northern track bringing much higher
rainfall across our Central Texas counties, and vice-versa. To put
this into a probabilistic perspective, out of all ensemble members
(GEFS / GEPS / EFS), 55% support a more northern track. Yesterday,
only 23% of members had this solution. We will continue to watch
this in future model runs to for more agreement and consistency to
increase our confidence in rainfall totals. Continue to keep an eye
on the forecast going into this week.

Thanks to the rain cooled air and cloudy skies both Wednesday and
Thursday will feel fairly cool for summer standards, with highs
mainly in the 80s both afternoons. Later Thursday night/overnight
into Friday, the rain will exit our Big Country counties, allowing
for a short respite from the rain for most. Low chances for isolated
storms will remain both Friday and Saturday for our southernmost
zones. Looking ahead, just out of the bounds of the long term
forecast period, there is potential for another GOM tropical
disturbance to bring additional showers and storms late next
weekend. We`ll cover this in the coming days.



.AVIATION... /Issued 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through late tonight with south flow 10-20 kt. A
stratus intrusion will result in MVFR cigs around sunrise with
continued south flow. Scattered cumulus is expected Monday
afternoon with an increase in afternoon showers mainly east of the
major airports.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  92  76  91  73 /   0  10   0   5  10
Waco                75  91  74  89  73 /   0  20   0  10  10
Paris               73  90  72  89  71 /   0  20   5  20  10
Denton              74  93  73  91  71 /   0   5   0   5   5
McKinney            74  91  73  90  71 /   0  10   0  10  10
Dallas              76  93  75  90  73 /   0  10   0  10  10
Terrell             74  90  73  89  71 /   0  20   0  10  10
Corsicana           76  92  75  90  74 /   0  30   5  20  20
Temple              75  92  74  89  73 /   0  20   0  10  10
Mineral Wells       74  92  75  91  72 /   0   0   0   0   5





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion