Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 130109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
709 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

A fairly strong detached upper level low currently spinning over
the Baja California peninsula has aided in the northward transport
of upper level moisture into southern New Mexico and western
Texas. This moisture is then being sheared off to the east along
the base of a 100+ kt jet stream, covering much of North and
Central Texas with a veil of upper level clouds. Given the clouds
are expected to persist throughout the night, this evening`s
forecast update raises expected low temperatures a couple of
degrees, keeping much of the region in the mid 20s.

Another batch of upper level clouds currently across South Texas
will persist through tonight and gradually move northward. This
batch will most likely persist through the day tomorrow, helping
to keep highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.



.AVIATION... /Issued 549 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019/
/06Z TAFs/

A shroud of high clouds has invaded the North and Central Texas
sky this early evening, and will likely persist through the rest
of the night. The low responsible for the high clouds continues
to spin off of Baja California, slowly drifting to the east
through the next several days.

With all of the cloud cover expected to be in the upper levels, no
flight restrictions are expected at any of the regional TAF
sites within the current valid forecast. The northerly winds that
are currently in place will gradually begin to veer overnight,
and eventually arrive at a southerly direction by sunrise

In the 24-30 hour time, stronger return flow will aid in the
northward transport of lower and mid level moisture. Mid-level
clouds will be on the rise after 00Z Thursday, with some flight
restrictions possible by early Thursday morning.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 215 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019/
/Wednesday Night through Monday/

By late Wednesday, North and Central Texas will be under the
influence of a split upper level flow pattern resulting in some
rain chances for Central Texas and a dry forecast for North
Texas. An upper level low that is currently over the Baja
Peninsula will move eastward into south Texas by Wednesday night.
This will provide some isolated to scattered rain chances to
central and east Texas, south and east of the Metroplex, on
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures should be a
few degrees above freezing Wednesday night so there`s no threat of
any wintry precip.  Meanwhile, a weak shortwave will briefly
interrupt a mostly zonal upper level flow pattern over North
Texas. The shortwave will be accompanied by a weak surface front.
This shortwave and surface front appear to be void of any moisture
though so no rain chances are expected for North Texas on
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Skies will begin to clear for all of North and Central Texas by
Thursday afternoon as High Pressure will build into the Southern
Plains. This High Pressure will dominate the weather pattern for
a few days allowing for mostly clear skies, no rain chances, and a
relative warming trend from Thursday afternoon through Saturday.
Max temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s Thursday with
temperatures warming a few degrees each day on Friday and
Saturday. Highs will be near normal by the weekend with max
temperatures in the low 60s nearly areawide on Saturday and

An upper level low will form on the leeside of the Rockies on
Sunday morning and by Sunday afternoon this upper low will drop
south and eastward and move rapidly into Oklahoma and Texas. This
will provide scattered rain chances Sunday afternoon and evening
across North and Central Texas. Models are not particularly
consistent on exactly where the best moisture associated with this
upper low will set up or if there will even by much moisture with
it so for now have just painted 20 PoPs area wide for Sunday
afternoon and evening.

By Monday afternoon, low level winds behind the upper level trof will
begin to swing around to the south and weak upper level ridging
will build into North and Central Texas. This pattern will remain
in place for a few days, leading to a dry forecast and
temperatures warming to at or above normal for early to mid next



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1138 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2019/
/This Afternoon through Tomorrow/

Modest cold advection will continue for another couple of hours
before the center of the surface high settles over the region and
winds diminish. Temperatures remain below freezing in several
spots, but additional sunshine should allow for about 5-7 degrees
of warming through late afternoon. Winds will become near calm for
a few hours tonight around midnight, but as the surface high
shifts to the east, we should see a southerly flow resume by early
morning. This, in combination with high cloudiness spreading in
from the west ahead of an upper low over northwest Mexico, should
prevent optimal radiational cooling overnight. Nonetheless, it
will still be cold, with lows in the lower 20s areawide.

We`ll see additional cloud cover spread in from the south during
the day Wednesday as the upper low moves into South Texas.
Moisture should remain limited keeping us rain free through the
day, but the added cloud cover will mean another cold day. Highs
will top out in the 40s and lower 50s.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    25  51  36  54  34 /   0   0  10   0   0
Waco                25  48  37  54  34 /   0   5  40  20   0
Paris               22  47  31  52  30 /   0   0   5   5   0
Denton              23  50  33  54  31 /   0   0   5   0   0
McKinney            22  49  33  54  31 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dallas              26  51  36  55  34 /   0   0  10   5   0
Terrell             23  51  35  55  32 /   0   0  20   5   0
Corsicana           25  49  37  53  34 /   0   5  40  20   0
Temple              24  48  37  53  34 /   0  10  40  40   0
Mineral Wells       23  52  32  53  28 /   0   0   5   0   0





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion