Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

000
FXUS64 KFWD 252348
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
648 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019


.AVIATION...
VFR through Monday afternoon across all of North and Central
Texas with only a few daytime Cu and few to scattered high clouds.

A south to southeast wind less than 10 knots tonight will increase
on Monday in response to a deepening lee trough across the
Central High Plains. Southerly winds Monday will range from 12 to
16 knots along with some afternoon gusts near 23 knots.

79

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 320 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019/
/Tonight/

Isolated showers and storms associated with a shortwave trough
should end by sunset, with all precipitation moving east into the
Mississippi Valley tonight. Light south winds, a strengthening
ridge aloft and a muggy surface layer will keep tonight`s lows
between 75 and 80 degrees. Veering low level flow should shunt
stratus mainly to the east of the region, keeping skies mostly
clear this evening and overnight.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019/
/Monday Onward/

Monday is shaping up to be one of the most oppressive days of the
year in terms of heat and humidity. This will be due to a
deepening surface low across the Texas Panhandle region and a weak
upstream cold front, which will reposition the thermal ridge axis
eastward into our area. Some very warm 850mb temperatures should
result in afternoon highs reaching near 105F across our western
zones, with the remainder of the forecast area likely within a
couple degrees either side of 100F. In addition, afternoon
dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s will contribute to heat index
values in the 105-112 degree range. As a result, a Heat Advisory
has been issued for the entire CWA effective Monday afternoon.
The only bit of relief may be a more stout southerly breeze of
15-20 mph throughout the day, owing to the tightened pressure
gradient accompanying the deepening surface low to our northwest.
The Heat Advisory may need to be extended into Tuesday,
particularly for areas south of I-20, although there are a couple
of complicating factors regarding Tuesday`s forecast that will
need to be ironed out first.

By Monday evening, a band of convection should develop through
south-central Oklahoma along the approaching cold front. This
activity is expected to consolidate into perhaps a couple of
linear segments in the presence of ~20 kts of 0-3 km shear, and
move southward off the boundary into North Texas sometime Tuesday
morning. However, the environment won`t be terribly favorable for
MCS maintenance as any convective clusters move farther south,
due to weak and veered low-level flow ahead of the boundary along
with modest instability. We`ll be monitoring mainly wind and
flooding threats overnight and into Tuesday morning, particularly
along and north of Hwy 380. Some backbuilding of an MCS could
begin occurring in this region of 2"+ precipitable water, and
measured rain rates near 2" per hour will be a possibility.

Outflow from fairly widespread morning convection may force the
effective frontal zone to become repositioned farther south on
Tuesday afternoon, possibly leading to some additional isolated
development around the I-20 corridor. There will continue to be
the potential for a few strong or marginally severe storms during
the day, mainly owing to a small increase in deep-layer shear as
northwest flow aloft strengthens slightly. Widespread cloud cover
and lingering rainfall throughout the day should result in
substantially cooler conditions across parts of North Texas, with
some locations struggling to make it out of the 80s. Meanwhile,
a majority of Central Texas should remain hot and mostly dry,
which may necessitate an extension of the Heat Advisory through
Tuesday afternoon for locations south of I-20.

A relative lull in precipitation is expected Tuesday night before
some renewed development occurs near the stalled frontal zone and
any residual outflows on Wednesday afternoon. Once again, decent
coverage of convection and cloud cover should hold highs a bit
below normal for much of North Texas. A low-end strong/severe
storm potential will continue through Wednesday with mainly a wind
threat. However, heavy rain will continue to be of concern,
particularly across areas that will have already received
rainfall on Tuesday.

Lower convective chances will prevail through the rest of the
workweek as the front beings to slowly lose its identity.
Temperatures will rebound a bit as well with less convective/cloud
coverage during the daylight hours. The picture becomes less
clear heading into next weekend. Occasional operational model runs
and some individual ensembles attempt to bring a secondary front
into the area over the weekend that would deliver additional rain
chances and slightly cooler temperatures. However, this solution
hasn`t been consistent enough to look like a promising bet at this
point. Have maintained some near-normal temperatures and low rain
chances through the remainder of the extended forecast.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80 102  81  95  76 /   5   0  10  50  40
Waco                79 102  79 100  78 /   0   0   0  20  20
Paris               74  98  75  86  71 /   5   5  20  60  50
Denton              79 101  79  89  73 /   5   0  20  60  40
McKinney            78 101  79  89  74 /   5   5  20  60  40
Dallas              81 102  82  94  76 /   5   0  10  50  40
Terrell             78 101  80  93  76 /   5   5  10  40  30
Corsicana           78 101  79  98  77 /   5   5   5  20  20
Temple              78 102  79 100  76 /   0   0   0  10  20
Mineral Wells       76 103  77  97  72 /   5   0  10  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

79/22

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion