Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
280
FXUS64 KFWD 270822
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
322 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
...New Long Term...
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1152 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/
/Through Saturday Night/
The weak upper trough responsible for the relatively cool and
unsettled weather we have been experiencing for the past week or
so will hang on one more day before it lifts to the northeast on
Sunday. Abundant moisture below 700 mb will keep plenty of clouds
around through Saturday with morning stratus and afternoon Cu.
Much like the past few days, there should be enough moisture and
lift for a few showers and storms to develop. The best chances
will be across the eastern zones during the afternoon and evening
when surface heating helps with destabilization, but a stray
shower or storm could PoP up just about anywhere and and at any
time. The good news is that limited instability and weak flow
aloft will keep all storms well below severe limits.
Temperatures tonight and Saturday will remain below normal with
lows from the upper 60s to the middle 70s and highs in the 80s to
the mid 90s. Temperatures will begin to creep upwards beginning
Saturday night with all locations staying at or above 70 degrees.
79
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Onward/
After one more day with rain chances and cooler temperatures to
finish out the weekend, a more typical summer-like pattern of hot
and dry weather will prevail the rest of the week. Afternoon highs
will transition from near/slightly below normal to as much 5 to
10 degrees above normal for locations across North Texas through
the work week.
North and Central Texas will remain under some influence of an upper
level trough for one more day as it gradually departs to the
northeast and becomes an open wave. Southerly onshore flow will
continue to advect and abundance of Gulf moisture into Central and
East Texas; however, the main axis of 2"+ PWAT values will remain
closer to the coast. Weak lift and ample moisture will support the
chance of showers and storms (20-40%) once again, with lightning
and brief heavy rainfall remaining the primary threats due to weak
flow aloft. Although higher heights will be nudging in from the
west Sunday, it will still be near or below normal for much of the
area temperature wise, with highs generally in the upper 80s to
mid 90s.
Monday marks the true arrival of a more stagnant pattern, thanks
to ridging aloft gradually becoming centered over the forecast
area. Resultant subsidence will promote a warming trend, with
highs in the mid 90s (Central TX) and upper 90s (North TX) Monday
afternoon turning to highs in the upper 90s (Central TX) and
widespread triple digits (North TX) by Thursday. Locations
generally north of I-20 and west of U.S. 281 across the Big
Country are the most likely to exceed 105 degrees, with a 30-50%
chance both Thursday and Friday. Heat indices will be a few
degrees higher each day, increasing the risk for heat-related
illnesses, and also likely necessitating heat headlines in some
fashion. While this isn`t a record breaking heat wave by any
means, the recent stretch of below normal temperatures will
exacerbate the effects of the upcoming heat, especially for those
expected to experience multiple 100+ degree days this week.
Remember to know your limits outdoors, take plenty of breaks, and
stay hydrated.
Gordon
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 1152 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/
/06Z TAFs/
Patchy stratus, currently across East Texas, will work westward
toward the I-35 corridor overnight. MVFR to high end IFR ceilings
are expected all TAF sites overnight. Ceilings will gradually lift
during the morning hours Saturday, becoming VFR by afternoon.
A few showers and storms will be possible, especially during the
heat of the day, but the best moisture and lift will reside to
the east and southeast of the TAF sites.
A southeast to south wind will continue in the 6 to 12 knot range
along with a few higher daytime gusts.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 74 93 77 98 / 10 0 5 0 0
Waco 88 72 91 75 96 / 20 0 20 0 0
Paris 86 71 91 75 94 / 40 5 20 0 0
Denton 92 72 95 76 99 / 10 5 5 0 0
McKinney 90 73 93 76 98 / 20 0 10 0 0
Dallas 90 74 94 77 98 / 20 0 10 0 0
Terrell 88 72 91 75 95 / 30 5 20 0 0
Corsicana 88 74 92 76 96 / 30 5 20 0 0
Temple 88 72 91 74 95 / 20 5 20 0 0
Mineral Wells 94 72 96 75 100 / 5 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
