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Categorical Day1 2000Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Open the discussion at the Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado or two are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into
southern New England this afternoon and early evening.
...20Z Update...
Only two changes are made to the outlook for this issuance. The
first change is to trim the western edge of the slight risk and
associated wind and tornado probabilities, to account for the
eastward progression of a cold front. The second change is to trim
the western edge of the thunder line from much of the Ohio Valley
and central Appalachians Mountains.
..Broyles.. 10/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026/
...Mid-Atlantic States/southern New England...
A large-scale positive-tilt upper-level trough will approach the
region, with a modest buoyancy/high-vertical shear scenario expected
to be favorable for low-topped/fast-moving storms capable of wind
damage near/ahead of a cold front. Such severe potential is expected
to maximize across the Delmarva and eastern Pennsylvania into New
Jersey and southern New York.
Stratus remains very prevalent across much of the region late this
morning, although visible satellite imagery reflects a rather quick
erosion south to north across southern Virginia, and this same trend
should continue for east of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians spine
especially across Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania and perhaps
nearby parts of New Jersey/Delmarva.
A related surface low over southern Ontario will develop
east-northeastward today into southern Quebec, as a trailing cold
front sweeps east-southeastward across the eastern states. Low-level
moisture is forecast to gradually increase ahead of the front
through the afternoon, and MLCAPE should gradually increase into the
500-1000 J/kg range, particularly where more cloud breaks occur.
But, lapse rates through low/mid levels are likely to remain quite
poor (reference BUF/PIT/IAD 12Z observed soundings). This should
temper overall updraft strength to some extent, and low-topped
convection which develops along/near the front may produce little
lightning, especially with northward extent into southern New
England.
Even with the potential thermodynamic limitations, favorable
deep-layer shear will support some updraft organization. Given the
strength of the low/mid-level flow, isolated strong/gusty winds may
occur. A low-topped convective line will further develop across
central into eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York this
afternoon. Convectively augmented wind gusts capable of producing
scattered damaging winds will likely be the main severe risk as this
activity spreads quickly eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic
and southern New England through early evening. A few line-embedded
mesocirculations could also occur, which could yield a brief
tornado.
