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Categorical Day1 1200Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
000
ACUS01 KWNS 191232
SWODY1
SPC AC 191231
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts
of the Southeast later today.
...Southeast this afternoon/evening...
A closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves
eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface
cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the
southern Appalachians. A weak lead shortwave trough (enhanced some
by overnight convection) will move eastward over the southern
Appalachians and Piedmont this morning and the eastern Carolinas by
early-mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with
the lead trough farther east in the Carolinas this afternoon, with
little larger-scale forcing for ascent farther west. Still, widely
scattered thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon
in conjunction with weak ascent along the front and local terrain
circulations across the western parts of the MRGL risk area.
Weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening
low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized
storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally
severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening.
...TX through tonight...
Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor
thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre
Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a
couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions
will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering
convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they
manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated
convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm
advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM.
Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates
and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail
appears too low to warrant an outlook area.
..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/19/2024
$$
