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Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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404 FXUS64 KFWD 130707 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 107 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog will affect portions of Central Texas through the morning before visibilities improve by midday. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect. - A strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight leading to colder and windy conditions on Sunday. Light rain and drizzle may accompany this front`s passage. - Abnormally warm temperatures will return to the region next week with minimal rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Yesterday`s weak stalled frontal boundary and the nearly calm winds in its vicinity are serving as an impetus for dense fog development across Central Texas. Higher surface dewpoints remain pooled along and south of this boundary where a Dense Fog Advisory is already in effect, but additional fog development could occur through parts of East Texas yet this morning along a northward protrusion of the moist axis. We`ll continue to monitor trends for any necessary expansion of the current Advisory. Slow partial clearing of fog and low stratus should occur through the daytime before a strong cold front arrives this evening and tonight. This frontal boundary and its attendant ascent should support additional low cloud cover and perhaps pockets of light rain and drizzle from late this afternoon into tonight. Post- frontal northerly winds will also increase to 15-20 mph with some gusts of 25-30 mph immediately following its passage. Strong cold advection will send overnight lows into the upper 20s and 30s for most locations, some 30+ degrees colder than this afternoon`s highs. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Sunday morning will feature crisp wind chills in the teens and 20s following the overnight frontal passage, and cold advection will offset diabatic heating with afternoon highs only reaching the 40s. Wind speeds will gradually lessen throughout the daytime, becoming calm on Sunday night. Despite a cold start to Monday morning, an abrupt warming trend will commence through the first half of the workweek as a warm advection regime becomes reestablished, with highs returning to above normal as early as Tuesday. Another fast-moving Central Plains system could sweep through the area during the second half of the week, but the degree of moisture recovery preceding it remains uncertain. For now, rain chances with an additional late week frontal passage are too slim to mention, with an abnormally warm and dry forecast being the most likely solution. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 VFR currently prevails at D10 airports, but increasing low cloud cover could result in low cigs later this morning. For Waco, areas of fog are already resulting in significantly degraded flying conditions, and this will likely remain the case through most of the morning with IFR/LIFR prevailing. This afternoon, most of the TAF sites should go MVFR due to developing low stratus near and ahead of an approaching strong cold front. As this boundary moves through this evening, it may be accompanied by pockets of mist and drizzle which would likely also serve to temporarily lower flight categories to IFR. Gradual lifting of cigs should occur toward the end of the valid period with VFR resuming early Sunday morning with breezy north winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 42 62 31 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 71 48 66 39 / 0 10 20 10 Paris 67 40 59 31 / 0 0 10 10 Denton 70 35 63 26 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 70 39 62 29 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 70 43 63 33 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 70 44 64 33 / 0 0 10 10 Corsicana 68 50 67 40 / 0 10 20 10 Temple 70 50 69 39 / 0 10 20 10 Mineral Wells 73 37 67 29 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for TXZ147-148- 156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley |
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