Dallasdawg.com Weather

579
FXUS64 KFWD 271922
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
222 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon along
  and east of I-35 and north of I-20.

- Scattered severe storms are expected on Tuesday with a primarily
  a large hail and damaging wind threat.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late Thursday
  and Friday with some potential for heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

------- This Afternoon and Tonight -------

The forecast concern this afternoon and evening will focus on the
isolated severe thunderstorm potential along and east of the
dryline within a highly unstable but weakly forced environment.

A dryline has now developed near the I-35 corridor and will
continue nudging east through the afternoon. This dryline is
separating a moist airmass to the east from the dry air to the
west. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near mid 70F will
combine with steep mid-level lapse rates to yield strong
instability with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg.

Despite this favorable thermodynamic setup, large-scale forcing
for ascent remains limited across much of North and Central Texas.
Recent model guidance continues to suggest low confidence in
sustained convective development across North Texas. Therefore,
storm chances through the rest of the afternoon will remain
between 20-30% for areas east of the I-35 corridor and north of
I-20.

If a storm develops, it will be capable of producing large hail,
potentially exceeding 2 inches in diameter, along with damaging
wind gusts. Storm motion this afternoon will be relatively slow
with an increased potential for backbuilding isolated cells. If
storms develop, a highly localized flash flooding threat may
materialize this afternoon and evening. Storms may remain
relatively isolated into the early evening before gradually
weakening and shifting to the east.

Later tonight, increasing low-level warm advection, an
approaching shortwave and a cold front along the Red River may
allow for additional thunderstorm development. A limiting factor
that will work against storm development will be the presence of
an EML, restricting updrafts from ascending rapidly. If storms
develop overnight into the early parts of Tuesday morning, the
most likely location would be north of I-20 where surface features
may enhance forcing for ascent. Moderately strong deep-layer
shear, 3000+ J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km will
lead to a threat for large hail and damaging winds.


------- Tuesday -------

On Tuesday, confidence has increased in a more active convective
day across the region with some locations experiencing
thunderstorm activity by sunrise. As mentioned above in the
"tonight" period, large hail and damaging winds will be possible
with the morning activity.

By the afternoon, strong diurnal heating is expected to result in
destabilization east of a dryline and south of the cold front.
Additionally, morning thunderstorm activity will likely leave
residual outflow boundaries, providing additional areas for
possible thunderstorm development. Scattered strong to severe
storms are now looking probable across parts of North and Central
Texas, especially along/east of I-35 and north of I-20. The
environment will be strongly sheared, with MLCAPE between
3000-4000 J/kg, leading to an initial threat for large to very
large hail. The stronger low-level shear will be across East
Texas, where the tornado threat will be slightly higher.

The initial individual supercells are expected to grow upscale
into a cluster of storms that will spread east/southeast through
the afternoon and evening. The threat will shift to include a
heightened damaging wind threat as the cluster of storms move
southeast. The threat will linger well into the evening before
storms are expected to exit our region by early Wednesday morning.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The weather pattern will remain unsettled into midweek, through
the most organized severe weather threat should shift east of the
region by Wednesday.

The cold front will be south of our region, however, elevated
moisture along with continued passing shortwaves will keep low
rain chances in place across Central Texas. Rain chances will be
between 20-40%. The severe weather threat will likely remain
southeast of our region as the instability drops off behind the
cold front.

Our next storm system will be approaching on Thursday, spreading
large scale forcing for ascent across all of North and Central
Texas. The elevated front is likely going to be bisecting North
and Central Texas, proving a localized area of ascent through much
of the day. Scattered showers and storms are expected to increase
in coverage through the evening and overnight. Abundant moisture
will lead to an increased threat for flooding going into Friday as
widespread precipitation amounts approach 3". The severe weather
potential will remain low through the late workweek event.

Much cooler weather is expected usher in to finish out this week
with afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s. Overnight, temperatures
will dip into the 40s and 50s this weekend. Make sure to grab a
light jacket is you plan on going out during the early morning
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Forecast challenges today will include varying wind directions
along with thunderstorm development this afternoon.

At this time, gusty southwesterly winds have developed with clear
to mostly clear skies in place. By this afternoon, a dryline will
sharpen and approach the North Texas TAF sites. Ahead of this
dryline, winds will remain out of the southwest, while winds west
of the dryline will be westerly. Whether the dryline moves far
enough east to lead to pure westerly winds remains in question.
For now, there remains better confidence that winds will remain
out of the southwest through the afternoon with occasional gusts
to near 20 kts.

Regarding the thunderstorm potential, a 15-20% chance of
thunderstorms does come back to eastern portions of D10, with any
storm motion expected to be to the east. This would likely be
outside of the vicinity of the TAF sites. Having said that, we`ll
continue to monitor the potential for back building of
thunderstorms that could start generating higher impacts to
arrivals/departures.

For Waco, thunderstorm potential this afternoon will be far
enough removed to avoid major weather concerns. Any afternoon
thunderstorm activity will remain well east of the area.

Tonight, our nightly pattern continues with MVFR surging
northward, impacting all of North and Central Texas by Tuesday
morning. The MVFR ceilings will remain in place through the late
morning hours before scattering of low clouds begins and VFR
returns. Beyond 24 hours, storm chances will be on the rise as a
cold front shifts south through tomorrow. Confidence on timing,
coverage and location remain too low to include in the extended
portion of the DFW TAF.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested this afternoon along
and east of I-35 and north of I-20. Even if activation is not
locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the
National Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  88  62  73 /  10  50  40  10
Waco                74  91  68  78 /  10  20  20  20
Paris               69  81  60  71 /  30  70  70  20
Denton              70  87  59  72 /  10  60  40  10
McKinney            71  85  61  73 /  20  60  50  10
Dallas              73  89  63  73 /  10  50  40  10
Terrell             72  87  63  73 /  30  50  60  20
Corsicana           75  91  68  78 /  20  40  40  20
Temple              73  92  68  83 /  10  10  20  20
Mineral Wells       69  91  59  73 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez